But most emissions linked to energy infrastructure are already essentially lockedin. The sustainable development scenario maps out a way to meet sustainable energy goals in full. Global energy scenario model boston consulting group. Our latest scenarios illustrate that a successful grand transition for the energy sector will require unprecedented global political and economic collaboration.
The objective of the chapter is to linkthrough global scenarios the energy options presented in. This module presents the introduction to global energy consumption, energy scenarios, energy transition and poverty. Rj is a monthly contributor to axios expert voices and a global fellow at the atlantic council global energy center. In this world, the free movement of people is both a curse and a blessing. Projections in international energy outlook 2017 ieo2017 are not predictions of what will happen. Energy information administration global transportation energy consumption. Therefore, applying the scenario planning method, this research develops four scenarios in irans 2025 vision, through a combination of the changes in energy consumption and re generation.
Iea energy efficiency 2018 and world energy outlook 2018. Massachusetts institute of technology, cambridge, ma, usa. Global energy demand means the world will keep burning fossil fuels, international energy agency warns. Music today we speak about global energy consumption. Pdf global energy needs are expanding substantially as populations grow and economies develop around the world. The energy system implications of this 2019 scenariobased update.
The global energy statistical yearbook is a enerdatas free online interactive data tool. Global energy trends statkrafts low emissions scenario 2018 the energy sector is in the midst of a rapid transition with profound technological, political and marketbased changes. The enerdata global energy forecasting team just released the 2018 edition of its 2040 world energy scenarios. Oil and natural gas make up about 55 percent of global energy use today. Aes is leading innovation in the integration of renewable energy and storage solutions, and we believe this is one of the most promising opportunities in our industry.
This article reports a study on global energy perspectives to 2050 and beyond conducted jointly by the. The global energy perspective reference case provides our view on how the energy transition will unfold. It includes a variety of technological combinations and their outcomes. The fossil free energy scenario project was set up to evaluate the technical, economic and policy implications of substantially reducing fossil fuel energy use and developing an energyefficient system utilizing renewable energy sources. View the article pdf and any associated supplements and figures for a period of. Environmental protection agency abstract the international energy agencys world energy outlook weo 2004 includes a. Pdf on nov 1, 2010, halsnaes k and others published the global energy. How much energy will the world use in the future, and what forms will it take. Global energy scenarios energy forecasting 2017 edition.
The second and third scenarios high and low liquids demand were developed by adjusting consumer. Among numerous attempts to forecast the future of global energy systems, one of the most recent and comprehensive was produced in 1998 by the world energy council wec and the international institute for applied systems analysis iiasa, a leading think tank based in austria. Pdf on nov 1, 2010, halsnaes k and others published the global energy scenario in 2050 find, read and cite all the research you need on researchgate. Some energy sources have non energy uses, for example coal or natural gas can be used as a feedstock in fertiliser plants. The study examines the implications of alternative scenarios of energy development up to. In this scenario, global energy related co 2 emissions peak around 2020 and then enter a steep and sustained decline, fully in line with the trajectory required to achieve the objectives of the paris agreement on climate change. The sustainable development scenario maps out a way to meet sustainable energy goals in full, requiring rapid and widespread changes across all parts of the energy system. Pdf energy is a critical foundation for economic growth and social. Bcgs global energy scenario model is a proprietary tool that allows companies to model the impact that disruptions in the energy market would have on their business. Investment in oil and natural gas is required to replace natural decline from existing production and to meet future demand under all. The world of energy is being reshaped by a set of fundamental drivers, which we term the grand transition. This chapter assesses that literature and summarises the main driving forces of future energy developments and their implications. In the et scenario, global energy demand grows by around a third by 2040 a significantly slower rate of growth than in the previous. It represents the leading source citation needed for medium to longterm energy market projections, extensive statistics, analysis and advice for both governments and the energy business.
A need for a lowcarbon world has added a new challenging dimension for the longterm. Analysis of three notable low or zero carbon energy scenario sets developed by. Energy consumption in nonoecd countries increase s 41% between 2015 and 2040 in contrast to a 9%. The complete reports for previous years are available for free download in the section publications, while for the actual world energy outlooks only the summary is. It allows to browse data through intuitive maps and graphs, for a visual analysis of the latest trends in the energy industry. Energy markets have long been characterized by stabilitybut today they are defined by disruption. Vision 2040 global scenarios for the oil and gas industry 7 trends four trends were identified as determinant for the oil and gas industry when the years that separate us from 2040 are analyzed.
Abstractenergy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives. Many scenarios illustrate the effect of energy system developments on global issues. In the et scenario, global energy demand grows by around a third by 2040 a significantly slower rate of growth than in the previous 20 years or so. The rate of growth of primary energy demand per capita is highly dependent on the scenario. Global energy demand electricity demandsupply gas demand oil demand carbon emissions 6 4 oil demand growth slows down substantially, with a projected peak in the. This scenario takes into account the current and planned policies. Vision 2040 global scenarios for the oil and gas industry. For example, india is one of the biggest energy consumers in fact, sixth largest energy consumer in the world with 3. The complete reports for previous years are available for free download in the.
In order to deepen our understanding of market trends, statkraft develops longterm scenarios that provide insight. The energy sources, that are either found or stored in nature are a secondary energy sources b primary energy sources c both a and b d none of the above 2. World energy consumption is the total energy produced and used by the entire human civilization. In the first slide that im presenting to you, you can see that over the past 50 years, global energy consumption has increased monotonously. In the efficient world scenario, energy intensity will improve by around 3% per year, a stepup from current levels, resulting in minimal increases in energy demand, despite the global economy doubling global primary energy demand, gdp and intensity, historically and in the ews, 200040 energy intensity improvements will accelerate 0 100 200 300. In this years low emissions scenario, as in last years, the global. Leveraging the poles model, we offer expert foresight for strategicbusiness planning and policy making.
The team has developed the world energy model wem to explore how energy demand is evolving in different countries and sectors. The annual world energy outlook is the international energy agencys flagship publication, widely recognised as the most authoritative source for global energy projections and analysis citation needed. Growth in energy consumption is broadbased across all the main sectors of the economy, with industry and buildings. Global primary energy consumption outlook scenarios by. Global primary energy consumption by outlook scenario 20162050 primary energy consumption worldwide by region 20102018 primary energy consumption leading countries 2018. These drivers provide the broader context for determining global energy pathways to 2040. Examination of scenarios to 2040 using itedd 2 the first scenario is the eias international energy outlook 2016 ieo2016 reference case projections. The world energy outlook 2018 examines future patterns of a changing global energy system at a time of increasing uncertainties and finds that major transformations are underway for the global energy sector, from growing electrification to the expansion of renewables, upheavals in oil production and globalisation of natural gas markets. He is a board member of junior achievement of greater washington. The global energy scenarios to 2040 publication explains the enerblue scenario ndcs, 34c, its impacts on different energy sources and geographical regions in the same way that the commitments needed to move from the enerblue to the energreen 2c energy scenario and some results for the enerbrown 56c. By 2040, 10 of the assessed 2oc scenarios project that oil and gas will continue to supply more than 50 percent of global energy. Global energy scenarios 2050 of the world energy council. This question lies at the heart of shell scenarios work.
Perspectives for energy efficiency improvements in manufacturing fridtjof unander, fatih birol, and laura cozzi, international energy agency john a. This scenario charts a path fully aligned with the paris agreement by holding the rise in global temperatures to well below 2c and pursuing efforts to limit it to. Global energy co2 emissions outlook scenarios by source 2040 emissions from major global fossil fuel companies 19652017 global lifecycle emissions intensity of. Freeway describing a world of limited government intervention dominated by shorterterm free market forces, and the scenario tollway envisaging a world where markets are more regulated. The strong global policy effects of unfinished symphony can achieve a nearflat primary energy demand through to 2040, while modern jazzs technologydriven efficiency gains are over whelmed by strong gdp growth with primary energy demand increasing by % over the period. An ebook reader can be a software application for use on a computer such as microsofts free reader application, or a booksized computer this is used solely as a reading device such as nuvomedias rocket ebook. The world energy council has been developing and using world energy scenarios for over a decade to support its global member network of energy leaders, to clarify complexity, and to realise new opportunities for successfully managing global energy transition. Global energy demand electricity demandsupply gas demand oil demand carbon emissions 6 4 oil demand growth slows down substantially, with a projected peak in the early 2030s despite stable historical growth of more than 1% per annum, oil demand growth is projected to slow. How it has increased over time and what primary energy sources have been utilized to satisfy this growing global energy demand. Typically measured per year, it involves all energy harnessed from every energy source applied towards humanitys endeavors across every single industrial and technological sector, across every country. Energy scenario bureau of energy efficiency 2 and electricity. World energy scenarios 10 key messages 1 energy system complexity will increase by 2050. A scenario is an image of a possible future condition. Pdf the global energy scenario in 2050 researchgate.
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